Determinants of confirmation

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Determinants of confirmation.

Epistemologists often suppose that the extent to which evidence e confirms hypothesis H depends on probabilities involving e and H, and nothing more. We show experimentally that human reasoners sometimes violate this assumption.

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Confirmation of parametric hypotheses

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The Paradox of Confirmation

Idea: E [∼Ra &∼Ba] confirms H [(∀x)(Rx ⊃ Bx)] relative to >, but E doesn’t confirm H relative to some background K ≠ >. Question: Which K ≠ >? Answer: K = ∼Ra. Idea: If you already know that ∼Ra, then observing a’s color won’t tell you anything about the color of ravens. Distinguish the following two claims: (PC) ∼Ra &∼Ba confirms (∀x)(Rx ⊃ Bx), relative to >. (PC*) ∼Ra &∼Ba confirms (∀x)(Rx ⊃ ...

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This paper presents a new analysis of e.G. Hempel's conditions of adequacy for any relation of confirmation [Hempel C. G. (1945). Aspects of scientific explanation and other essays in the philosophy of science. New York: The Free Press, pp. 3-51.], differing from the one Camap gave in §87 of his [1962. Logical/ounthltions a/probability (2nd ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.]. Hempel, ...

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Psychonomic Bulletin & Review

سال: 2007

ISSN: 1069-9384,1531-5320

DOI: 10.3758/bf03194115